Week 15 is on the horizon, and for as a lot pleasure as the vacation season can deliver, the truth that we have now lower than a month of standard season soccer is heartbreaking. Whereas we solely have three full each day fantasy soccer slates left on the docket, this one is thrilling for a variety of causes. Nothing tilts me greater than a weak slate of video games after four:00 p.m. ET, and the late-afternoon window in Week 15 brings us a whopping 5 video games, some with direct playoff implications. We even have our first style of playoff soccer with the Titans and Texans squaring off in Nashville for the lead within the AFC South. Beneath we’ll dive into RotoGrinders’ NFL DFS Projected Possession numbers and the way we are able to greatest take benefit in DraftKings and FanDuel contests, although we are able to use the knowledge of the group method when making our sports activities betting picks too.
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Now, let’s get into the Week 15 evaluation…
WEEK 15 DFS LINEUPS:
FD Money | FD GPP | DK Money | DK GPP | Y! Money | Y! GPP
Week 15 Projected NFL DFS Possession: Quarterback
LOW: Jameis Winston, Buccaneers @ Lions (7.9% pOWN on FanDuel, 7.zero% on DraftKings). We at present have Winston projected because the fourth-most fashionable QB on FanDuel and the fifth-most fashionable on DraftKings. I can see him coming in a bit beneath that mark largely attributable to Mike Evans’ absence, but when the general public appears extra carefully on the matchup as an alternative of the truth that Winston is with out his prime pass-catcher, he ought to carry a good possession share. Winston has an infinite ceiling on this draw – he’s persistently been significantly better towards man protection, which the Lions normally play. Detroit has additionally had points all season getting strain on the quarterback, rating useless final in quarterback hit price. Whereas the Lions aren’t that robust to beat on the bottom both, the Bucs nonetheless profile as a pass-happy offense, and I don’t anticipate a sudden explosion from the run sport even towards a Detroit crew that ought to wrestle to maneuver the ball offensively. Winston is most confidently stacked up with Chris Godwin, however Breshad Perriman, O.J. Howard, and Justin Watson all have attraction as GPP stacking mates.
HIGH: Ryan Tannehill, Titans vs. Texans (13.2% pOWN on FanDuel, 12.5% on DraftKings). Enjoying the total fade here’s a little uncomfortable, however I feel it’s the place I’ll find yourself come Sunday. The Titans aerial assault has seen a whole resurgence since Tannehill got here below heart, and it’s shortly catapulted Tennessee into an amazing spot to make the postseason. The very fact of the matter stays that the Titans greatest technique of transferring the ball offensively is with Derrick Henry, which is a giant a part of the explanation Tannehill hasn’t exceeded 27 go makes an attempt in his previous 4 video games and has fallen below 20 makes an attempt in two of these contests. He’s been extremely environment friendly from a fantasy perspective given the amount he’s seeing, however I’m not offered that may proceed. Positive, Drew Lock made the Texans protection appear to be a Division II school unit final week, however I’d anticipate a rebound in an enormous divisional sport. I’ll be underweight right here on GPPs – Tannehill is at present projected to be the preferred QB on each main websites.
Different notable QBs at low possession with an opportunity to increase: Eli Manning (vs. Dolphins), Baker Mayfield (@ Cardinals)
Different notable QBs that I feel are being overvalued: Kyler Murray (vs. Browns)
MORE WEEK 15 DFS: Values | Stacks | Lineup Builder
Week 15 Projected NFL DFS Possession: Operating Again
I’m slightly torn at this spot. It’s fairly uncommon, however this can be a robust week to pick a RB I’m assured in exceeding worth that sits low within the pOWN rankings. There are just a few choices below the 10-percent pOWN mark that I’ll be obese on. One is Kenyan Drake (vs. Browns), who noticed David Johnson discover the top zone on a receiving rating regardless of Drake nonetheless seeing the lion’s share of the snaps and touches within the backfield but once more. Arizona has a winnable house draw with the Browns and except this one will get away from the Cardinals, Drake needs to be an necessary a part of the offensive assault. I’d assume he’ll go ignored contemplating the Johnson TD final week and the shortage of a real explosion sport over the previous few weeks.
Phillip Lindsey (@ Chiefs) is one other again with some low-ownership upside provided that he’s continued to deal with the majority of the work with Royce Freeman appearing in additional of a complementary position – the 2 had a extra even cut up earlier within the yr. Josh Jacobs (vs. Jaguars) is one other again I’m eyeing. If he’s energetic, I’d anticipate low possession attributable to him sitting out final week and the potential menace of aggravating his shoulder damage. Nevertheless, if he’s on the market I’d anticipate a traditional workload, and with how poorly the Jags offense has seemed currently, the Raiders might have extra scoring probabilities than ordinary.
It’s robust to poke holes in nearly the entire fashionable RBs in Week 15. Chris Carson (@ Panthers) is projected to be the preferred again on the principle slate, and it’s smart, as Carolina has been getting torched on the bottom. With Russell Wilson’s underwhelming field scores of late, this could possibly be a sport Seattle controls on the bottom. I’ll probably be underweight if he is available in on the possession we have now projected (29 %). I do anticipate Wilson to bounce again quickly, and Carson isn’t all that constant of a contributor via the air, so there are definitely avenues to him being a disappointment.
One other RB that I feel is being overvalued: Melvin Gordon (vs. Vikings)
WEEK 15 PPR RANKINGS: Operating again | Huge receiver | Tight finish
Week 15 Projected NFL DFS Possession: Huge Receiver
A.J. Brown, Titans vs. Texans (24.eight% pOWN on FanDuel, 19% on DraftKings). My challenge with Brown is much like my challenge with Tannehill – I don’t suppose the amount is sufficient right here to warrant the possession he’s going to obtain. Brown is at present projected to be the preferred WR on each main websites, and given his boom-or-bust type, I’m completely content material being nicely underweight on this one. Adam Humphries continues to be out, however he wasn’t taking part in a lot of a job with Tannehill below heart, and the shortage of passing makes an attempt for this offense stays regarding. There are a variety of appropriate pivots on this value vary, and I’ll be seeking to differentiate there.
Chris Conley, Jaguars @ Raiders (7.zero% pOWN on FanDuel, eight.three% on DraftKings). Talking of appropriate pivots off of Brown, Conley units up as a pleasant GPP play that ought to nonetheless fly below the radar even with air-yards monster DJ Chark (foot) out of motion. I’d anticipate a lot of the discipline to gravitate towards the better-known Dede Westbrook if selecting a Jags wideout, however Conley is extra of a direct alternative for Chark provided that he’s a greater downfield menace and can play on the skin whereas Westbrook retains his duties within the slot. We noticed A.J. Brown destroy this secondary final week, and given his big-play functionality, that isn’t shocking. The Raiders have allowed essentially the most deep ball completions within the NFL. I’ll be nicely obese on Conley.
Different notable WRs at a low possession with an opportunity to increase: Justin Watson (@ Lions), Mike Williams (vs. Vikings), Terry McLaurin (vs. Eagles), Sterling Shepard (vs. Dolphins), Will Fuller (@ Tennessee), Breshad Perriman (@ Lions)
Different notable WRs that I feel are being overvalued: Christian Kirk (vs. Browns), Greg Ward (@ Redskins)
WEEK 15 NON-PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Operating again | Huge receiver | Tight finish | D/ST | Kicker
Week 15 Projected NFL DFS Possession: Tight finish
O.J. Howard, Buccaneers @ Lions (6.5% pOWN on FanDuel, 7.35% on DraftKings). Oh boy, is that this one scary. Howard was one of many largest season-long DFS busts and actually hasn’t had a real breakout efficiency this season. With Mike Evans (hamstring) out, we’d lastly have one on the horizon. I wouldn’t go anyplace close to Howard in money video games attributable to what we’ve seen so far, however I don’t see Watson/Perriman consuming up all of what Evans left behind, plus Howard initiatives as a pleasant red-zone piece with out Evans’ large physique obtainable. As I famous with Winston, the Lions don’t generate a lot strain, which ought to alleviate a few of Howard’s blocking and will get him into just a few extra routes. There’s definitely threat right here, however at his value Howard has an ample GPP ceiling.
Different notable TEs at a low possession with an opportunity to increase: Mike Gesicki (@ Giants)
Notable TEs that I feel are being overvalued: Dallas Goedert (@ Redskins)